![]() Other significant causes of death, including cancer and dementia, are at or below normal levels. Deaths from diabetes, the urinary system, and respiratory infections are also elevated, though for the latter most of the excess is from COVID. For example, heart disease, heart failure and circulatory diseases. Although this is not explicitly age-standardised, allowance has been made to allow for trends.Ĭardiovascular causes show significant excess mortality. ![]() This allows us to examine deaths by cause, location, and age-group (but currently not combinations of these). One helpful source is the analysis of excess mortality in England provided by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID). Since COVID does not explain all the recent excess we need to look at other causes. COVID was the underlying cause for 2,800 of these and may also have contributed to others. There have been around 4,500 deaths with COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate in the last eight weeks. Taking this approach, the Continuous Mortality Investigation report 8,200 excess deaths in the last eight weeks. This adjusts for changes in population size and age distribution. The best way to address this is age-standardisation. A calculation which simply compares the number of deaths this year to a historical average will overstate excess mortality. Like many developed countries the UK has an ageing population, so the trend is for deaths to increase. Here we look closer at recent mortality and what can and cannot be inferred from the data available. With such a large loss of life the desire to point to underlying causes is understandable, but we must take care not to be too simplistic with our explanations. Speculation is rife as to the underlying causes with suggestions such as ‘lockdown effects feared to be killing more people than COVID’. The picture worsened as we moved into spring and summer, with the Office for National Statistics reporting 11,600 more deaths than average in the last eight weeks, only a small fraction of which arose during the heatwave.Įxcess deaths, typically a niche interest for actuaries and demographers, have made front page news. “We are discussing with public health leaders around the world to decide what we think is the best strategy for the potential booster for the fall of 2022,” Moderna chief executive Stephane Bancel told CNBC.The first two years of the pandemic brought a tragic loss of life, with over 120,000 excess deaths, almost all of which were a direct result of COVID-19.Įarly in 2022 there were fewer deaths than normal for the time of year. Moderna is also working on an updated version of its vaccine, set to be introduced later this year. He said Pfizer was working on an Omicron-specific version of the vaccine, which should be available by March. Pfizer’s Dr Bourla last week said two doses of its current Covid-19 vaccine offer “very limited protection, if any” against Omicron, while three doses “offer reasonable protection against hospitalisation and deaths”. The World Health Organisation has called on pharmaceutical companies to develop updated shots, warning that a vaccination strategy “based on repeated booster doses of the original vaccine composition is unlikely to be appropriate or sustainable”. Meanwhile, a South African study investigating the first documented breakthrough cases of the new variant in people who had received boosters, published in The Lancet on Tuesday, concluded that booster shots of mRNA vaccines failed to block Omicron. Since the start of the pandemic Israel has recorded just over two million cases and 8362 deaths.Įarlier this week, Israeli researchers said preliminary data from a study of more than 270 medical workers showed even a fourth dose was “not good enough” to prevent Omicron. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has warned the current Omicron wave could see up to four million people, or 40 per cent of the population infected. ![]() Tens of thousands of new cases are being reported each day, overwhelming testing services. Israel said last month it intends to begin rolling out a fourth shot to combat Omicron, despite a lack of scientific evidence on its impact. More than 80 per cent of Israeli adults have now received two doses of a Covid-19 vaccine, and more than half have received a booster. “Based on this, you hoped to achieve herd immunity by vaccination – and you failed in that as well.” “You refused to admit that the vaccinated are contagious despite the observations,” he wrote. Writing for N12 News, Professor Ehud Qimron, head of microbiology and immunology at Tel Aviv University, called on the Israeli Ministry of Health to “admit failure”. His comments come after a leading Israeli immunologist slammed the government’s pandemic response over the past two years. A medic prepares a dose of the Pfizer vaccine at a nursing home in Netanya, Israel. ![]()
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